Today should not be about how to live with Trump as president. It should be about inequality in our society, globally.
For many, the shock is too deep and today too early for this message. But I do hope that you will come back to this in and keep it in mind when moving forward. Because, as a guest in this country, I believe there is an important lesson this episode holds for all of us.
I sympathize with the people that can't believe their country has elected someone president, who has shown very different values from what they want the United States to stand for. It hurts to see friends bursting in tears because they realize a large part of the country has voted for a candidate that is against everything they personally stand for. The impact of this decision will shape global politics for at least the next four years, and it will impact the United States for a generation and beyond.
Having Donald Trump elected president of the United States was unimaginable when his campaign started and it became an absurd idea when the race turned into a never ending story of vulgar and disgraceful statements. But this is the result of a democratic election process and a large part of the population felt that Donald Trump is a better leader of their country (as the numbers stand, it was not a majority of voters, but once again "only" a majority of electoral votes).
Within the US there will be a need for reconciliation. Both parties will need to go through some serious reflection process about what they stand for and how they engage. And, to that extent I agree with most of my hosts here in the US, there will be even more need now to have a close eye on checks & balances.
But how to live with Trump as president of the United States is not the important question today - Presidents come and go. And while indeed he is be considered the most powerful man on earth, there is limits to how much he can change the country. Unfortunately this would be true in the same way if Hillary had been elected.
The really important, and in my opinion only relevant question is "Why"?
Why did the majority of people elect Trump president? I think it is wrong, and outright dangerous to say that this was dumb people who didn't know what they were doing - a view that unfortunately I did hear a lot and that also came up a lot after Brexit.
Because the real reasons behind this are somewhat similar to lessons learned from the European Union and Brexit. There is too large parts of society that did not benefit from past developments. Sergio Rebelo, a professor at Kellogg School of Management, has shown this in one of the most powerful statistics I've encountered so far on this phenomenon (I show the graph in this article). The median, inflation-adjusted earnings of 68% of the US society have decreased over the past 40 years. Only 32% of the US population, namely those who graduated college, have seen an increase. Essentially two thirds of society are excluded from economic growth. It should come as no surprise that this makes many people in the country angry and disappointed.
This is not specific to only the US or UK. It's just that it surfaced there in a more prominent way and attracted more attention - further nurtured by mistakes of political leadership and populist "rainmakers" who grabbed the opportunity. Similar developments are seen in other European countries.
For too long, some parts of our global economic system has benefitted too few. Those of us lucky enough to be on the right side of the equation, systematically underestimate the magnitude of inequality. The year of 2016 should be a reminder for all of us how bad inequality hurts political and economic systems. It is the year in which democracy is teaching us a lesson about what happens if you disregard an apparent "minority" for too long, and keep going with the status quo while dissatisfaction is growing.
Let's be clear on this though. Mr. Trump will not change that. His policies - if he implements them as announced - will in no way improve economic growth or fix the tax system. He is just a beneficiary of the deficiencies of the system we ran with for too long. For the UK, the same holds true. Brexit will not help solve the problem, but it is a result of having let things get out of hand.
We, the 10-30% that benefit (including me and most people who will read this), need to engage in some serious soul searching. If we still believe in the benefits of free trade and open markets (and as an economist, I certainly do), we need to figure out how we get those benefits distributed not just to us, but the other 70-90% of people. In the words of Sally Blount (Dean at Kellogg School of Management): "… markets, while highly efficient, are not fair, kind, or wise". This holds even more true in a world in which technological change and business innovation will radically change the workforce in the next 10-20 years.
At this occasion, may want to reconsider that aspiration to be the highly paid executive in the corner office, with a nice house and a fast car... just saying.
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Please share your comments and inputs (via comment function, twitter, e-mail, etc.). In my short write-ups I address topics that I am particularly interested in because they align with my values and beliefs. As such, they are always a reflection of my ideas, thoughts, and opinions. The only thing I am positive in that regard is that I do not have all the perspectives, all the knowledge, or all the facts - help me be better tomorrow.
